FP Markets: A Democratic sweep is the market's base case

LIMASSOL, Cyprus, Oct. 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Control of Congress is the focus on 3 November, as US citizens gear up to vote for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Importantly, the Midterm elections will help define the trajectory of President Donald Trump's remaining time in office – a topic that has naturally been in the spotlight recently.

Republicans hold 218 House seats to the Democrats' 214, and a 53-47 Senate majority. A party needs 218 seats to control the House, so Democrats would need to gain about four seats. Winning the House puts the Speaker's gavel in Democrats' hands, enabling them to control which bills reach a vote.

Prediction markets (Polymarket) heavily lean in favour of a Democratic win. As of 29 October, markets priced in a 67% chance of a Democratic sweep of both chambers, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 28%, and a Republican sweep at 6%. Separately, the odds show a 93% probability of Democrats winning the House. Based on these odds, a sweep is on the table, but nevertheless far from certain.

FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill commented: 'With US stock benchmarks at record highs, a key – and let's face it, obvious – question for many investors is whether equities can remain bid following the Midterms. While I will be the first to say history can never guarantee future performance, studies by JP Morgan suggest that since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns in the year following each Midterm election. If we see a divided Congress, not much changes, in my view, and it could ease some pressure on longer-dated yields. A Democratic sweep, nevertheless, will raise questions about corporate taxes and regulation, and perhaps serve as a headwind for stocks'.

To take advantage of potential market moves, traders and investors at FP Markets can access a wide selection of key asset classes through world-class trading platforms. These include CFDs on US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, major USD FX pairs, and gold and oil, allowing them to trade market reactions as results come in.

About FP Markets:

FP Markets is a global, multi-regulated, award-winning broker established in Sydney, Australia in 2005. The broker offers 10,000+ CFD instruments across seven asset classes, available on industry-leading platforms including MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, TradingView, and cTrader.

FP Markets' regulatory presence includes the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Seychelles, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, and the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya.

For more information, visit www.fpmarkets.com